* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942011 08/13/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 46 53 59 65 64 60 54 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 46 53 59 65 64 60 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 40 47 54 61 64 58 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 6 7 6 7 9 9 8 18 44 54 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -2 -1 -4 -3 -4 -1 -4 0 -4 1 5 SHEAR DIR 283 316 324 317 299 311 304 323 248 214 230 233 239 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 27.8 27.1 27.0 23.1 19.2 15.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 147 147 147 146 143 134 127 128 96 82 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 128 127 127 124 122 116 112 112 86 76 72 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 7 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 52 49 52 57 56 58 57 62 60 62 54 43 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 3 3 4 3 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -42 -18 -3 -6 -28 -58 -63 -67 -3 -17 -8 27 200 MB DIV -7 7 16 20 11 16 9 50 34 75 17 -12 -5 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 2 4 6 0 1 7 -11 -22 -34 -23 LAND (KM) 1171 1148 1130 1127 1131 1179 1262 1130 981 675 472 351 471 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 26.8 27.1 27.5 27.8 28.7 29.7 31.5 34.1 37.7 41.0 43.6 45.8 LONG(DEG W) 58.4 59.3 60.1 60.8 61.5 62.8 63.9 64.7 64.7 63.1 60.0 54.6 47.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 7 7 7 8 11 16 20 22 26 29 HEAT CONTENT 33 30 29 32 31 27 20 9 10 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):298/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 9. 3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 21. 28. 34. 40. 39. 35. 29. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942011 INVEST 08/13/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942011 INVEST 08/13/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942011 INVEST 08/13/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)