* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982011 08/13/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 45 53 61 66 65 73 76 76 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 45 53 61 66 65 73 76 76 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 32 37 42 47 51 55 60 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 11 11 11 12 7 9 9 9 7 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -3 -2 -2 0 -2 -3 -5 -6 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 97 52 49 62 61 63 73 39 27 35 78 62 87 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 27.8 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 147 147 147 142 137 135 133 134 133 129 124 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -54.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.7 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 67 63 65 62 61 57 58 59 59 58 63 58 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 10 11 13 14 12 15 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 8 6 12 12 13 10 15 13 23 18 21 21 27 200 MB DIV 36 32 43 64 54 30 54 36 41 11 4 19 36 700-850 TADV 2 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -4 -3 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 1655 1738 1824 1905 1989 2143 2287 2425 2396 2252 2127 2000 1872 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.4 12.2 12.2 12.1 12.3 12.6 12.7 12.7 12.3 12.0 12.0 12.6 LONG(DEG W) 121.2 122.3 123.4 124.5 125.6 127.8 129.8 131.8 133.5 135.1 136.5 137.8 138.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 21 28 28 27 23 19 16 17 16 15 8 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 8. 13. 15. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 20. 28. 36. 41. 40. 48. 51. 51. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982011 INVEST 08/13/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982011 INVEST 08/13/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##