* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL062011 08/13/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 53 54 55 53 47 40 30 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 45 49 53 54 55 53 47 40 30 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 47 48 49 48 48 48 47 45 40 34 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 35 29 29 28 34 36 27 29 34 37 52 67 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -4 -3 -1 -2 0 3 1 -5 N/A SHEAR DIR 233 236 253 262 266 274 285 298 296 329 332 322 N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.3 24.9 24.7 23.9 24.8 25.0 25.0 24.4 23.3 22.1 20.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 110 107 106 100 106 107 107 102 95 89 81 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 102 96 93 92 88 92 93 92 88 83 78 73 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.9 -55.2 -55.0 -55.7 -55.1 -55.0 -55.8 -56.3 -54.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 3 4 3 4 3 2 1 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 43 43 43 43 39 38 36 37 36 40 51 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 7 5 6 5 5 3 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 3 -19 -34 -44 -44 -24 -5 -28 -64 -77 -82 N/A 200 MB DIV 10 0 11 6 0 -15 -6 -27 -27 -50 -61 -42 N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -13 -25 -3 -26 -16 -8 -7 -6 -4 6 N/A LAND (KM) 756 760 770 725 722 926 1235 1512 1758 1688 1382 1124 N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.6 39.2 39.8 40.2 40.6 40.5 40.0 40.0 40.5 41.4 42.9 44.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.9 56.8 54.6 52.3 50.0 45.4 40.9 36.8 33.0 29.5 26.1 22.9 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 18 18 18 17 16 15 14 14 15 15 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 19 CX,CY: 16/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 4. -2. -6. -11. -15. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 14. 15. 13. 7. 0. -10. -21. -33. -36. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062011 FRANKLIN 08/13/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062011 FRANKLIN 08/13/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062011 FRANKLIN 08/13/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)