* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942011 08/13/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 41 47 51 54 55 54 52 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 41 47 51 54 55 54 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 32 36 41 45 48 50 51 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 7 9 9 9 10 8 4 15 14 24 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 -3 2 0 6 8 5 SHEAR DIR 301 313 314 334 314 336 336 357 188 235 236 238 226 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.5 26.7 26.3 26.0 24.4 23.5 21.4 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 147 144 141 130 121 118 115 102 96 87 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 127 127 125 122 111 104 101 98 87 84 77 79 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 10 6 3 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 50 54 57 58 58 59 62 65 65 62 56 50 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 4 3 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -58 -31 -17 -28 -25 -42 -46 -28 -15 -13 -58 -55 -12 200 MB DIV 9 23 20 -3 -3 9 8 30 52 43 20 4 -1 700-850 TADV 2 5 3 4 4 5 13 9 6 -19 -2 -37 -29 LAND (KM) 1170 1182 1201 1262 1330 1300 1109 898 742 656 588 559 738 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 9 10 10 10 12 13 13 13 15 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 29 30 32 26 16 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 3. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 16. 22. 26. 29. 30. 29. 27. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942011 INVEST 08/13/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942011 INVEST 08/13/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942011 INVEST 08/13/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)