* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982011 08/13/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 35 43 51 59 65 70 75 76 78 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 35 43 51 59 65 70 75 76 78 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 33 37 42 46 50 55 60 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 12 12 10 10 8 6 6 5 4 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -4 -8 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 80 63 73 61 69 84 67 41 332 60 99 60 91 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.2 26.7 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 146 145 140 136 134 135 134 134 129 123 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -53.6 -54.1 -53.7 -53.7 -53.0 -53.9 -53.1 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 64 65 63 62 59 59 59 60 59 60 62 59 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 7 9 10 10 12 14 15 16 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 9 14 14 16 12 15 15 15 18 18 19 19 16 200 MB DIV 33 38 58 55 53 32 68 41 25 14 3 24 10 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -2 -2 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 1743 1816 1893 1966 2041 2193 2339 2448 2418 2291 2191 2073 1937 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.4 12.1 11.9 12.3 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 122.3 123.4 124.4 125.4 126.4 128.5 130.4 132.0 133.4 134.8 135.9 136.9 137.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 8 7 7 7 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 21 29 28 27 27 21 17 16 18 18 16 11 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 11. 12. 14. 14. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 10. 18. 26. 34. 40. 45. 50. 51. 53. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982011 INVEST 08/13/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982011 INVEST 08/13/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##