* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL062011 08/13/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 44 44 44 44 42 37 29 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 41 44 44 44 44 42 37 29 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 41 36 31 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 27 29 29 32 28 24 20 30 29 41 40 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 -2 -2 0 -3 0 0 -1 8 4 7 N/A SHEAR DIR 232 253 260 265 262 277 285 294 291 339 345 311 N/A SST (C) 25.2 24.9 24.6 24.0 24.0 25.1 25.1 24.9 24.1 23.2 22.1 20.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 107 105 100 100 108 108 106 100 94 89 82 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 96 93 91 88 88 94 94 91 86 82 78 73 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -54.7 -55.2 -54.9 -54.4 -53.9 -54.5 -55.0 -55.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 3 3 2 1 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 41 41 40 36 33 31 31 32 34 43 55 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 8 7 6 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -23 -40 -48 -55 -41 -18 -22 -52 -89 -106 -97 N/A 200 MB DIV 4 16 -2 -8 -9 -8 -32 0 -49 -56 -40 -38 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 4 -18 -12 -23 -23 -17 -9 -1 -5 1 38 N/A LAND (KM) 743 763 714 732 795 1067 1408 1708 1848 1541 1236 967 N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.4 39.9 40.3 40.5 40.7 40.4 39.7 39.5 39.9 40.8 42.3 44.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 56.7 54.5 52.3 50.0 47.7 43.1 38.6 34.5 30.9 27.5 24.2 21.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 18 17 17 17 15 14 14 15 15 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 19 CX,CY: 16/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -16. -20. -23. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. -3. -11. -20. -30. -38. -41. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062011 FRANKLIN 08/13/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062011 FRANKLIN 08/13/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062011 FRANKLIN 08/13/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)