* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922011 08/13/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 24 30 37 45 52 59 67 74 78 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 24 30 37 45 52 59 67 74 78 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 19 19 20 23 25 28 32 37 43 50 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 1 5 9 10 10 11 10 13 12 11 13 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 3 2 1 0 2 -2 1 -2 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 291 16 288 309 342 308 357 309 332 292 251 243 234 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.1 28.8 28.0 27.3 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 142 142 142 143 146 150 154 149 137 129 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 136 136 135 134 133 134 136 138 131 119 111 112 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 12 13 13 12 10 7 700-500 MB RH 36 38 38 38 41 42 48 53 57 55 54 58 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 6 6 8 850 MB ENV VOR 19 15 6 0 -11 -39 -68 -80 -78 -85 -51 -57 -43 200 MB DIV -16 -20 0 9 8 -2 12 3 43 0 48 -5 17 700-850 TADV 7 3 6 3 -6 6 0 10 4 17 7 6 6 LAND (KM) 1181 1101 973 857 756 639 645 768 853 992 786 755 759 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.7 21.3 22.5 23.9 25.4 27.0 28.9 31.2 33.6 35.7 LONG(DEG W) 54.0 55.3 56.6 57.9 59.2 61.5 63.7 65.5 67.3 68.6 69.1 68.0 66.2 STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 14 14 13 12 12 11 11 11 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 55 48 57 55 45 49 41 38 29 28 14 0 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 754 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 25. 32. 39. 47. 54. 58. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922011 INVEST 08/13/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922011 INVEST 08/13/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922011 INVEST 08/13/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)