* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL062011 08/14/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 42 43 42 39 34 24 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 42 43 42 39 34 24 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 40 40 41 42 42 41 39 35 32 DIS Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 28 27 25 28 21 21 18 26 18 6 14 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -4 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 1 -2 -3 0 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 245 248 252 256 262 266 314 329 358 22 345 283 N/A SST (C) 24.7 24.3 24.2 24.7 25.1 25.1 25.3 25.2 25.1 24.8 24.2 23.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 103 102 105 107 106 107 106 105 103 99 93 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 94 91 89 91 92 90 90 89 87 87 84 80 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -55.0 -55.4 -55.0 -54.7 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 2 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 42 42 39 35 34 33 29 27 31 42 46 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 10 9 8 8 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -46 -46 -52 -34 -20 -7 -23 -55 -97 -106 -86 N/A 200 MB DIV 7 5 -9 -4 0 -20 -36 -35 -73 -33 -34 8 N/A 700-850 TADV -12 -31 -13 -27 -34 -24 -13 -8 -4 0 6 0 N/A LAND (KM) 722 731 797 902 1025 1277 1516 1699 1828 1900 1846 1639 N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.2 40.4 40.5 40.5 40.4 39.6 38.4 37.8 37.8 38.4 39.7 41.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.3 50.7 48.1 46.0 43.8 40.7 38.4 36.3 34.4 32.8 30.8 28.9 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 7 9 10 11 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 23 CX,CY: 21/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. 3. 0. -2. -2. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -19. -22. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -16. -23. -28. -31. -32. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062011 FRANKLIN 08/14/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062011 FRANKLIN 08/14/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062011 FRANKLIN 08/14/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)