* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922011 08/14/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 20 21 23 27 34 41 47 53 60 63 63 V (KT) LAND 20 19 20 21 23 27 34 41 47 53 60 63 63 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 18 18 19 21 24 27 31 36 42 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 12 16 12 8 12 9 8 4 13 17 22 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 1 1 0 -2 -1 1 -2 -3 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 270 266 289 312 340 340 18 16 81 186 219 222 252 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 28.7 27.8 27.2 26.7 25.4 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 142 145 146 149 152 148 136 129 124 111 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 131 131 133 133 134 136 131 119 113 108 96 88 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -54.3 -55.0 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 12 13 11 7 3 2 700-500 MB RH 47 44 44 48 47 52 52 57 59 60 62 57 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 3 2 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 7 -8 -20 -35 -73 -98 -91 -52 -35 -41 -38 -31 200 MB DIV -3 5 6 18 6 -6 4 23 42 30 22 5 -6 700-850 TADV 8 9 2 -3 -1 1 0 3 3 -5 -7 -7 -7 LAND (KM) 1018 930 857 823 810 837 964 1106 966 910 723 663 672 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.2 22.8 23.5 24.2 25.5 27.1 29.0 31.7 34.6 37.4 39.5 40.7 LONG(DEG W) 56.6 57.8 59.0 60.1 61.1 63.0 64.7 66.0 66.5 65.2 62.5 58.8 54.8 STM SPEED (KT) 19 13 12 12 11 11 11 12 14 16 18 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 44 41 33 37 47 38 39 18 9 16 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 839 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 3. 7. 14. 21. 27. 33. 40. 43. 43. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922011 INVEST 08/14/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922011 INVEST 08/14/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922011 INVEST 08/14/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)