* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982011 08/14/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 35 41 50 56 57 59 55 55 50 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 35 41 50 56 57 59 55 55 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 32 36 39 42 43 42 40 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 9 13 13 8 10 7 6 6 3 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -3 -4 -1 -3 0 -3 -1 -2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 87 79 80 78 75 52 60 13 325 255 124 179 194 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.3 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.1 25.0 24.6 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 144 143 140 137 130 126 127 125 114 108 103 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -53.5 -53.6 -52.8 -53.3 -52.6 -53.2 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 63 61 59 57 59 61 54 59 59 58 45 47 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 10 13 14 14 17 14 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 19 16 13 8 11 15 24 31 19 27 46 50 35 200 MB DIV 52 52 53 29 19 43 29 35 31 9 28 39 6 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -4 -2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1843 1905 1971 2037 2105 2246 2316 2345 2384 2326 1957 1762 1679 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.7 13.4 13.6 13.5 14.0 15.2 16.2 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 123.8 124.9 125.9 126.8 127.6 129.4 131.1 131.7 132.1 133.7 136.9 138.5 139.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 8 9 6 2 5 12 13 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 29 29 27 26 23 19 13 11 12 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 17. 21. 24. 25. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 9. 13. 10. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 10. 16. 25. 31. 32. 34. 30. 30. 25. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982011 INVEST 08/14/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982011 INVEST 08/14/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##