* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072011 08/14/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 36 41 46 51 51 46 39 32 24 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 36 41 46 51 51 46 39 32 24 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 33 34 38 43 47 48 45 43 42 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 7 7 9 11 6 7 32 65 78 79 71 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -2 -4 -6 -1 0 5 0 0 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 331 327 347 350 336 360 65 200 233 243 244 243 234 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.1 26.6 23.7 15.6 10.4 13.8 12.4 12.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 145 141 135 127 124 101 75 69 71 69 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 126 124 120 116 112 111 92 71 67 68 67 66 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.0 -52.1 -50.7 -50.1 -49.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 56 58 59 60 66 69 67 58 44 49 59 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -19 -14 -27 -41 -22 -10 11 27 64 148 183 200 200 MB DIV 0 -3 22 14 8 52 42 59 15 27 26 43 33 700-850 TADV 6 5 2 2 -2 4 -1 15 -19 -77 -70 -33 -23 LAND (KM) 1148 1191 1239 1274 1200 1085 770 538 190 452 898 1349 1241 LAT (DEG N) 28.2 28.8 29.4 30.3 31.1 33.4 37.1 41.0 45.1 48.4 50.9 52.8 54.1 LONG(DEG W) 62.1 62.8 63.4 63.8 64.1 63.9 62.0 57.9 52.2 46.8 41.0 35.0 29.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 16 22 27 27 24 22 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 30 28 25 15 10 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 17. 16. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 12. 11. 5. -3. -11. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -16. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 6. 11. 16. 21. 21. 16. 9. 2. -6. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072011 SEVEN 08/14/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072011 SEVEN 08/14/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072011 SEVEN 08/14/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)