* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922011 08/14/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 27 30 37 44 55 60 68 72 75 80 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 27 30 37 44 55 60 68 72 75 80 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 30 35 41 47 53 56 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 11 6 9 8 2 10 8 14 24 29 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -1 0 -2 2 -1 -3 -1 4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 261 294 324 345 330 7 16 90 147 185 222 232 264 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.2 27.3 26.8 26.0 24.5 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 144 146 147 150 150 140 130 125 117 104 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 131 132 132 132 134 133 123 114 110 103 91 85 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.7 -54.6 -55.5 -56.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 8 5 2 1 700-500 MB RH 45 44 47 46 51 50 53 59 58 59 55 45 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 2 5 3 4 3 6 5 7 7 10 15 850 MB ENV VOR 14 -5 -16 -26 -48 -84 -106 -79 -55 -53 -81 -72 -94 200 MB DIV 2 1 15 22 5 12 9 62 31 30 0 -27 -14 700-850 TADV 10 6 -3 0 4 0 4 -10 1 -14 -11 -17 -13 LAND (KM) 917 862 828 828 841 922 1082 1107 1022 843 742 701 685 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.0 23.7 24.4 25.1 26.5 28.3 30.5 33.3 36.2 38.7 40.4 40.9 LONG(DEG W) 58.0 59.1 60.2 61.1 62.0 63.6 64.9 65.6 65.1 62.8 59.0 54.3 50.2 STM SPEED (KT) 16 12 12 11 10 10 11 12 16 18 19 18 16 HEAT CONTENT 40 32 39 45 39 41 29 11 10 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 22 CX,CY: -18/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 790 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 11. 10. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 0. 2. 2. 4. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 10. 17. 24. 35. 40. 48. 52. 55. 60. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922011 INVEST 08/14/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922011 INVEST 08/14/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922011 INVEST 08/14/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)