* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982011 08/14/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 33 39 44 48 48 50 49 46 43 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 33 39 44 48 48 50 49 46 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 38 39 39 38 36 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 16 15 15 8 3 7 4 3 3 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -6 -7 -6 -3 0 -1 0 0 0 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 73 70 62 68 59 44 30 344 300 297 162 140 183 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.0 25.3 24.8 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 145 143 139 135 133 132 128 122 115 111 108 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 62 61 59 59 62 57 60 54 55 53 55 49 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 12 11 13 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 19 10 5 6 9 9 24 28 44 31 36 30 43 200 MB DIV 58 45 26 21 2 16 37 36 27 -2 37 12 27 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -5 -4 -4 -6 -3 2 LAND (KM) 1945 2011 2080 2147 2216 2323 2410 2439 2274 2129 1994 1808 1570 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 7 7 7 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 28 27 26 20 18 17 16 16 10 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):266/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 6. 9. 10. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 14. 19. 23. 23. 25. 24. 21. 18. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982011 INVEST 08/14/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982011 INVEST 08/14/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##