* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072011 08/14/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 47 52 57 53 48 44 38 32 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 47 52 57 53 48 44 38 32 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 40 44 48 47 45 44 44 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 4 4 7 9 6 18 43 59 50 47 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 0 -4 -6 -2 1 4 -1 -1 5 2 SHEAR DIR 304 331 45 329 327 64 110 220 234 245 252 251 236 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.6 26.7 26.0 20.9 12.5 12.7 12.8 11.8 12.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 145 138 133 124 119 88 71 70 69 68 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 127 125 120 116 111 107 81 69 68 67 65 65 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -52.6 -51.1 -50.9 -50.4 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 57 59 59 63 66 65 60 66 67 57 46 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 3 2 2 10 9 8 5 4 5 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -12 -26 -34 -39 -38 -1 39 69 104 157 186 237 200 MB DIV -2 9 8 8 27 30 54 40 31 33 30 21 31 700-850 TADV 3 1 1 -3 5 -9 2 -26 -27 -18 6 22 1 LAND (KM) 1112 1175 1242 1247 1190 1022 727 445 283 675 1108 1495 1158 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.8 29.5 30.6 31.7 34.6 38.7 42.8 46.7 49.9 52.2 53.8 54.6 LONG(DEG W) 62.9 63.4 63.8 63.9 63.9 62.5 59.5 55.0 49.3 43.9 38.4 33.1 27.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 11 13 20 25 27 26 22 19 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 26 12 10 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 15. 16. 16. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 11. 5. 0. -4. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 4. 4. 3. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 17. 22. 27. 23. 18. 14. 8. 2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072011 SEVEN 08/14/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072011 SEVEN 08/14/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072011 SEVEN 08/14/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)