* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922011 08/14/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 33 40 50 58 64 67 68 66 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 33 40 50 58 64 67 68 66 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 29 34 41 48 55 58 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 5 7 8 3 8 3 6 15 29 35 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 1 1 0 -2 -2 -2 -4 -2 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 304 338 2 335 349 62 343 15 237 232 221 237 245 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 28.8 28.1 27.3 27.5 26.1 23.6 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 145 146 147 148 152 149 139 129 132 117 98 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 133 133 132 133 134 130 122 113 114 100 85 79 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -52.9 -53.7 -55.2 -56.1 -56.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 10 7 5 3 1 700-500 MB RH 43 45 47 49 52 55 57 56 57 53 46 41 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -18 -26 -46 -77 -102 -98 -101 -63 -75 -78 -71 -79 200 MB DIV 13 23 20 13 -18 5 27 32 45 28 16 19 -1 700-850 TADV 6 0 1 5 9 2 4 0 -2 -14 4 2 -6 LAND (KM) 857 823 810 824 855 960 1080 1016 917 792 594 507 472 LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.5 24.2 24.9 25.6 27.0 28.6 30.8 33.5 36.3 38.8 40.9 42.5 LONG(DEG W) 59.0 60.1 61.1 62.0 62.8 64.3 65.6 66.5 66.2 64.4 62.1 59.1 54.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 10 11 13 14 16 16 17 19 HEAT CONTENT 33 37 47 41 37 41 20 8 11 10 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 15. 14. 12. 9. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 20. 30. 38. 44. 47. 48. 46. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922011 INVEST 08/14/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922011 INVEST 08/14/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922011 INVEST 08/14/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)