* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982011 08/14/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 32 39 45 50 52 52 52 54 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 32 39 45 50 52 52 52 54 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 33 37 40 42 42 41 40 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 14 13 10 9 3 4 3 3 10 12 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -6 -5 -6 -5 2 0 -1 -3 -5 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 71 68 72 60 63 43 341 347 293 139 135 132 177 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.1 25.5 25.3 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 142 139 137 135 134 131 128 123 118 117 113 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -54.0 -53.2 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 62 60 60 60 58 54 51 51 48 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 11 11 11 11 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 11 6 5 7 5 9 18 25 37 31 27 36 46 200 MB DIV 43 12 -1 -21 -1 18 20 12 5 17 50 36 28 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 -1 -3 -3 -3 -5 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 2057 2123 2191 2257 2325 2427 2455 2305 2171 2030 1861 1610 1324 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 27 24 15 20 18 16 18 15 10 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 423 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 6. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 14. 20. 25. 27. 27. 27. 29. 26. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982011 INVEST 08/14/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982011 INVEST 08/14/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##