* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL072011 08/14/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 47 51 54 54 51 45 40 37 34 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 47 51 54 54 51 45 40 37 34 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 47 52 55 54 49 46 45 47 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 5 7 9 10 4 30 65 58 42 26 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -1 -3 -1 2 5 0 -2 -2 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 295 348 349 13 9 24 201 233 237 238 237 235 241 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.6 27.1 26.3 24.5 16.9 10.6 12.7 11.1 11.0 11.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 141 133 128 121 107 77 70 69 67 66 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 124 123 117 113 109 97 73 68 67 65 63 63 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -51.4 -49.7 -49.3 -49.6 -49.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 57 58 59 62 65 66 64 56 51 42 46 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 3 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -31 -44 -48 -50 -60 -31 31 92 148 169 151 166 200 MB DIV -3 7 3 17 40 17 32 16 22 31 21 10 2 700-850 TADV 4 2 -1 1 5 10 7 -18 -82 -93 -44 -31 -44 LAND (KM) 1160 1240 1290 1242 1162 892 675 277 513 933 1281 1448 1203 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.4 30.2 31.6 33.0 36.4 40.3 44.5 48.9 52.1 54.2 55.7 56.0 LONG(DEG W) 63.1 63.4 63.6 63.4 63.1 60.6 56.3 51.4 46.0 41.0 36.5 32.4 28.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 11 14 17 23 27 28 26 20 15 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 29 25 15 8 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 12. 7. 1. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 0. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 19. 19. 16. 10. 5. 2. -1. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072011 GERT 08/14/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072011 GERT 08/14/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072011 GERT 08/14/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)