* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922011 08/14/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 34 42 49 56 60 63 63 62 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 34 42 49 56 60 63 63 62 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 32 37 43 48 51 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 12 11 8 8 2 11 20 24 28 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -3 -3 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 338 353 358 22 42 48 65 153 219 239 238 256 260 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.2 27.3 26.9 26.1 24.7 23.0 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 149 150 150 149 140 129 126 118 106 95 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 133 134 134 133 130 123 113 110 102 92 84 80 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -54.5 -55.3 -56.1 -56.8 -57.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 12 13 13 12 8 6 3 1 1 700-500 MB RH 49 48 52 53 53 55 58 58 55 46 43 44 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -35 -54 -76 -84 -115 -111 -86 -73 -91 -86 -79 -66 200 MB DIV 23 12 13 -12 15 -5 56 22 32 -8 -7 9 -17 700-850 TADV 0 0 4 4 4 5 -2 -1 -9 -4 -13 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 858 858 870 915 973 1115 1107 990 863 739 713 602 677 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.6 25.3 26.1 26.9 28.5 30.5 33.2 35.9 38.3 40.1 41.4 42.5 LONG(DEG W) 60.0 60.9 61.8 62.6 63.3 64.6 65.6 65.5 63.4 60.0 55.9 51.5 46.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 10 12 14 17 18 18 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 35 41 37 34 35 28 11 11 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 6. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 22. 29. 36. 40. 43. 43. 42. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922011 INVEST 08/14/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922011 INVEST 08/14/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922011 INVEST 08/14/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)