* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL072011 08/15/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 47 51 54 61 66 64 60 56 53 42 32 V (KT) LAND 40 44 47 51 54 61 66 64 60 56 53 42 32 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 48 52 54 58 60 55 50 46 44 45 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 9 12 9 2 11 40 52 52 45 38 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -4 -5 -2 2 5 6 4 2 5 5 3 SHEAR DIR 6 331 354 10 27 84 242 248 241 246 270 261 261 SST (C) 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.2 23.6 17.0 17.4 15.5 13.7 13.6 13.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 138 133 128 125 120 101 78 78 74 71 69 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 118 114 110 110 109 93 74 74 70 68 66 66 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -52.3 -50.9 -50.1 -49.4 -49.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 11 10 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 59 60 62 64 62 58 52 43 41 40 47 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 2 2 3 10 12 14 15 18 21 15 6 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -36 -47 -52 -66 -57 -32 -3 69 146 221 260 237 200 MB DIV 0 -2 18 43 22 27 5 4 20 23 24 41 37 700-850 TADV 4 -1 0 2 4 9 24 31 -49 -84 -45 -25 15 LAND (KM) 1254 1297 1238 1217 1139 883 622 407 916 1443 1115 713 384 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.5 31.4 32.5 33.5 36.8 41.2 44.7 47.3 49.8 51.9 53.4 54.6 LONG(DEG W) 63.2 63.4 63.5 63.1 62.6 59.9 55.3 48.7 40.6 33.2 26.6 20.8 15.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 15 24 29 30 29 25 21 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 24 10 8 9 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 10. 6. 1. -3. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -16. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 13. 7. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 2. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 21. 26. 24. 20. 16. 13. 2. -8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072011 GERT 08/15/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072011 GERT 08/15/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072011 GERT 08/15/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)