* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922011 08/15/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 29 35 40 45 49 52 53 50 48 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 29 35 40 45 49 52 53 50 48 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 30 33 37 40 41 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 17 19 13 11 9 5 16 22 34 33 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -4 -1 -2 1 2 0 0 0 5 0 SHEAR DIR 354 3 8 27 50 52 100 130 225 235 255 261 280 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.3 27.4 26.8 26.2 24.7 22.7 20.6 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 150 150 150 142 130 124 118 105 93 84 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 133 134 132 132 124 114 108 102 91 83 76 82 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -54.2 -55.0 -56.2 -56.4 -56.9 -57.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 13 12 13 8 5 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 54 54 55 55 59 61 62 58 51 53 55 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -55 -79 -90 -105 -117 -93 -74 -82 -87 -98 -88 -90 200 MB DIV 17 1 -8 19 3 15 39 36 16 9 11 -1 2 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 1 4 -8 -6 -14 1 3 -1 4 LAND (KM) 888 917 960 1026 1099 1237 1091 910 732 644 522 564 892 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.6 26.4 27.3 28.1 30.1 32.6 35.5 38.1 40.2 42.0 43.2 43.6 LONG(DEG W) 60.7 61.5 62.2 62.8 63.4 64.3 64.6 63.2 60.5 57.2 53.1 47.9 42.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 12 14 16 17 17 19 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 37 34 31 31 30 19 12 2 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. 1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 33. 30. 28. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922011 INVEST 08/15/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922011 INVEST 08/15/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922011 INVEST 08/15/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)