* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL072011 08/15/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 57 58 60 61 57 50 53 47 33 21 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 57 58 60 61 57 50 53 47 33 21 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 53 56 58 60 58 53 50 46 42 40 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 12 12 10 4 17 27 34 50 49 50 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -2 -2 2 4 4 8 4 5 13 23 SHEAR DIR 326 343 9 5 23 217 202 217 251 257 255 261 247 SST (C) 27.9 27.4 27.0 26.5 26.3 24.5 19.6 17.9 16.4 15.1 14.5 14.3 14.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 129 126 122 120 106 83 80 77 74 72 70 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 112 111 109 108 95 78 76 73 70 68 67 67 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -52.7 -51.6 -51.8 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 10 9 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 59 61 64 63 58 57 55 58 58 53 45 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 6 4 4 6 4 3 17 20 12 6 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -34 -36 -26 -23 10 -3 26 44 53 63 117 104 200 MB DIV -3 29 47 26 25 28 21 38 32 29 21 36 40 700-850 TADV 3 1 3 2 8 16 -23 -31 -4 0 -11 13 65 LAND (KM) 1270 1243 1162 1009 860 616 378 680 1297 1203 684 275 0 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 32.0 33.1 34.9 36.6 40.4 43.4 45.8 48.1 50.2 51.9 53.4 54.6 LONG(DEG W) 63.4 63.2 62.9 61.9 60.9 57.4 51.9 44.3 35.4 27.3 20.3 14.1 8.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 15 19 21 24 28 31 30 26 22 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 6. 2. -2. -6. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -4. 7. 10. 3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 13. 15. 16. 12. 5. 8. 2. -12. -24. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072011 GERT 08/15/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072011 GERT 08/15/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072011 GERT 08/15/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)