* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922011 08/15/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 27 25 23 19 17 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 27 25 23 19 17 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 19 18 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 31 33 30 26 28 25 25 21 24 35 40 42 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 6 0 1 0 3 5 3 5 8 15 SHEAR DIR 357 3 10 29 46 85 113 161 197 226 245 246 230 SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.5 27.0 26.2 25.7 25.5 23.7 23.2 20.8 18.1 15.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 143 137 131 125 117 113 112 100 99 89 81 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 126 120 113 108 102 98 98 89 90 83 77 73 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.9 -54.4 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 9 4 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 55 54 56 55 57 56 55 47 38 44 49 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -87 -107 -113 -121 -137 -133 -111 -88 -80 -83 -66 -64 9 200 MB DIV -23 -8 5 4 -1 17 19 18 7 21 19 26 22 700-850 TADV -2 5 6 -16 -7 7 -4 -25 -29 -43 -41 -27 -77 LAND (KM) 1257 1343 1434 1436 1317 1129 1013 857 759 991 1510 1126 379 LAT (DEG N) 28.0 29.1 30.2 31.4 32.5 34.9 37.0 39.0 40.9 42.8 44.8 47.2 50.1 LONG(DEG W) 59.3 59.7 60.0 60.0 59.9 58.5 55.9 52.5 48.1 41.8 33.6 24.0 14.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 11 12 11 12 14 16 18 22 28 33 35 34 HEAT CONTENT 27 22 11 9 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 17 CX,CY: 0/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 829 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 24. 26. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 7. 1. -3. -8. -12. -16. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922011 INVEST 08/15/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922011 INVEST 08/15/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922011 INVEST 08/15/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)