* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 08/15/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 37 46 55 62 67 72 77 79 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 37 46 55 62 67 72 77 79 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 31 37 41 47 54 61 70 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 1 4 7 13 11 15 22 17 18 16 18 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -1 -4 -4 -2 -1 -4 -1 -3 -3 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 116 5 329 283 282 315 273 296 287 304 287 289 292 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 29.0 29.4 29.9 30.2 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 153 153 154 152 151 149 153 159 168 171 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 155 157 156 157 156 152 147 150 154 159 164 160 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 52 52 51 49 48 52 51 50 53 56 59 61 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 19 30 24 23 47 33 31 38 22 16 2 -10 200 MB DIV 26 -3 1 -3 5 37 12 5 25 14 6 13 16 700-850 TADV 1 1 -2 0 -2 -2 9 2 12 4 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 738 604 489 410 390 395 237 161 72 76 67 175 136 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.3 15.0 15.8 16.6 17.5 18.4 19.2 20.0 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 54.7 56.2 57.7 59.2 60.7 63.9 67.2 70.3 73.1 75.7 77.8 79.8 81.5 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 15 15 15 16 16 15 14 12 10 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 66 70 76 74 78 69 76 105 97 91 105 117 112 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 3. 11. 19. 25. 31. 36. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 5. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 17. 26. 35. 42. 47. 52. 57. 59. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 08/15/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 72.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932011 INVEST 08/15/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 08/15/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)