* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982011 08/15/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 31 36 41 42 44 44 42 39 38 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 31 36 41 42 44 44 42 39 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 38 39 39 38 36 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 9 10 9 7 3 3 8 13 20 21 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -5 -5 -4 -3 -3 -6 -4 -4 -3 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 80 71 72 65 59 48 203 197 157 156 158 169 183 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.4 25.8 25.6 25.6 25.3 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 135 135 134 132 131 127 121 119 119 116 114 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 55 55 54 56 57 55 54 51 48 48 47 42 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 12 3 5 15 30 33 39 37 35 27 30 32 43 200 MB DIV -2 -18 -9 10 25 0 -12 10 13 2 17 21 12 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -2 -1 -2 0 -1 1 2 LAND (KM) 2317 2379 2442 2494 2434 2303 2183 2026 1835 1640 1446 1213 962 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 8 9 9 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 16 17 18 17 14 6 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):274/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -10. -10. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 17. 19. 19. 17. 14. 13. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982011 INVEST 08/15/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982011 INVEST 08/15/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##