* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL072011 08/15/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 57 59 60 59 61 60 62 53 41 28 20 V (KT) LAND 50 54 57 59 60 59 61 60 62 53 41 28 20 V (KT) LGE mod 50 54 57 59 60 58 53 51 49 46 43 41 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 12 13 7 9 12 20 35 45 43 40 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 0 0 3 -2 0 0 5 7 15 19 SHEAR DIR 16 21 28 50 91 154 183 227 270 260 265 255 229 SST (C) 27.9 27.4 27.0 26.3 25.7 23.0 20.0 19.7 16.4 14.5 14.1 13.9 14.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 131 127 121 115 97 85 84 76 72 70 69 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 115 113 108 103 88 79 78 72 69 67 65 65 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -52.2 -51.9 -51.5 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 61 62 62 63 60 58 61 63 56 50 48 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 5 5 3 9 11 18 18 15 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -50 -53 -70 -49 -63 -55 -16 8 3 39 90 133 200 MB DIV 17 39 25 23 21 19 28 43 29 7 19 29 32 700-850 TADV 0 -2 2 3 7 7 26 15 34 35 41 -4 -12 LAND (KM) 1251 1196 1068 921 812 636 547 971 1512 1029 600 275 85 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 32.9 34.3 36.2 38.0 41.0 43.5 45.9 48.7 51.0 52.7 54.1 55.0 LONG(DEG W) 63.3 62.6 61.9 60.5 59.1 54.5 47.8 40.3 32.4 25.1 19.1 14.2 10.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 19 22 22 25 28 30 28 23 18 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 8. 5. 2. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -15. -18. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 2. 3. 9. 9. 6. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 11. 10. 12. 3. -9. -22. -30. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072011 GERT 08/15/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072011 GERT 08/15/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072011 GERT 08/15/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)