* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 08/15/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 45 53 62 68 74 78 81 82 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 45 53 62 68 71 75 78 79 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 36 41 48 54 63 68 79 88 96 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 9 13 15 8 18 12 18 10 15 14 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -4 -2 -1 -3 -5 -6 -5 -2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 181 270 258 282 302 268 281 293 301 293 287 285 303 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.8 29.2 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 156 154 154 153 149 150 156 163 164 168 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 158 160 159 159 156 151 149 154 158 158 160 156 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.4 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 12 13 12 13 12 12 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 52 51 48 48 50 49 51 52 54 60 63 60 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 29 23 22 35 46 29 46 37 37 19 15 9 200 MB DIV -4 0 -2 6 23 36 2 18 21 11 7 15 -2 700-850 TADV 3 0 2 -2 -5 5 5 1 1 -4 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 582 462 386 379 411 303 254 155 54 30 277 321 221 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.4 15.2 15.9 16.7 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.1 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 56.4 58.0 59.6 61.3 63.0 66.4 69.8 72.9 75.9 78.5 80.9 83.1 85.2 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 17 17 17 16 15 14 12 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 70 77 75 80 73 79 104 93 97 115 113 120 127 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 20. 28. 37. 43. 49. 53. 56. 57. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 08/15/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 75.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932011 INVEST 08/15/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 08/15/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)