* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982011 08/15/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 31 38 40 43 44 44 44 40 37 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 31 38 40 43 44 44 44 40 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 32 36 38 38 38 37 35 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 10 9 11 7 5 4 10 13 18 19 22 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -4 -5 -6 -5 -4 -7 -5 -2 0 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 59 65 63 56 50 27 222 148 134 140 152 158 180 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.5 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 139 139 138 135 132 128 123 120 120 121 120 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 55 55 57 59 57 56 57 52 48 50 51 50 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -2 0 6 22 24 37 37 32 30 21 18 17 28 200 MB DIV -29 -26 0 11 23 -3 -3 17 29 11 47 30 -7 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 2406 2446 2487 2456 2382 2242 2129 1962 1775 1604 1449 1231 962 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 7 8 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 17 18 19 16 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 22. 24. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 13. 15. 18. 19. 19. 19. 15. 12. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982011 INVEST 08/15/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982011 INVEST 08/15/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##