* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 08/15/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 42 51 60 68 73 78 81 84 87 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 42 51 60 68 73 78 81 84 87 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 38 46 54 63 71 80 88 96 101 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 3 4 6 7 11 18 17 17 15 13 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 -2 -2 0 -3 -2 -3 -5 -2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 179 219 268 302 308 283 307 288 310 289 290 292 322 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.3 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 154 154 152 149 149 151 158 164 166 168 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 159 157 158 155 151 148 149 154 159 159 161 150 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 12 12 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 48 47 47 49 47 49 54 56 59 64 65 64 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 27 29 39 48 43 45 54 44 37 28 14 2 200 MB DIV 17 6 5 19 23 16 24 14 14 19 24 20 0 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -2 -1 4 5 2 1 0 -3 0 -2 LAND (KM) 367 328 355 388 391 322 182 151 22 126 361 278 111 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.2 14.5 15.2 16.0 16.8 17.5 18.2 18.8 19.3 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 59.2 60.8 62.3 63.9 65.5 68.7 71.8 74.5 77.2 79.5 81.8 84.0 86.3 STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 15 16 16 16 14 14 12 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 73 78 78 52 75 99 78 113 92 106 104 129 99 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 17. 26. 35. 43. 48. 53. 56. 59. 62. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 08/15/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 71.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932011 INVEST 08/15/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 08/15/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)