* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982011 08/15/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 37 44 47 49 51 48 47 43 41 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 37 44 47 49 51 48 47 43 41 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 44 50 53 53 50 47 43 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 10 8 6 5 7 12 18 22 27 27 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -4 -7 -7 -6 -5 -3 -5 0 -5 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 50 58 60 64 58 114 172 134 130 145 143 163 173 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.4 26.8 26.3 26.0 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 140 140 138 137 131 126 123 121 122 123 122 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 56 58 59 60 57 59 51 50 46 49 47 50 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 0 1 15 20 24 36 39 41 39 32 28 34 32 200 MB DIV -27 -7 -5 -3 -7 -17 -4 28 20 33 2 16 -10 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 2490 2516 2445 2370 2295 2171 2004 1814 1629 1459 1304 1091 872 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 19 19 18 16 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 19. 20. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 14. 17. 19. 21. 18. 17. 13. 11. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982011 INVEST 08/15/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982011 INVEST 08/15/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##