* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992011 08/15/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 33 38 50 58 67 68 69 65 64 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 33 38 50 58 67 68 69 65 64 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 39 43 47 49 49 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 19 19 16 16 15 9 13 11 12 11 6 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 0 0 3 2 3 0 0 -4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 64 56 54 65 60 51 3 23 6 3 27 97 148 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.3 26.9 24.4 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 155 156 156 159 161 158 155 149 134 109 94 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -53.5 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 7 4 2 700-500 MB RH 80 80 75 73 71 73 69 71 68 69 64 65 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 7 13 14 18 19 21 20 23 850 MB ENV VOR 26 10 4 1 -5 0 6 11 12 36 37 58 77 200 MB DIV 59 83 103 109 113 99 106 95 69 52 23 19 27 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 0 -4 -2 -6 -2 -9 -9 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 394 416 392 352 330 303 315 272 226 286 260 349 512 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.6 14.4 15.7 17.4 19.0 20.6 21.8 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 94.1 94.9 95.7 96.6 97.5 99.4 101.5 103.7 105.7 108.0 110.5 113.4 116.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 10 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 5 10 30 35 15 35 36 37 24 10 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 22. 29. 33. 35. 36. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. 3. 5. 10. 12. 16. 14. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 25. 33. 42. 43. 44. 40. 39. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992011 INVEST 08/15/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992011 INVEST 08/15/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##