* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL072011 08/16/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 47 46 46 41 34 27 22 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 47 46 46 41 34 27 22 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 49 49 48 45 43 41 39 37 37 37 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 15 11 12 20 27 51 56 51 50 42 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 0 -1 7 5 6 5 15 11 N/A SHEAR DIR 34 56 76 105 137 205 234 243 256 259 243 225 N/A SST (C) 27.2 26.5 25.9 25.1 23.9 20.7 19.2 16.5 15.4 13.9 13.9 13.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 122 117 110 102 87 82 75 72 70 69 69 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 113 109 105 99 92 81 76 71 68 66 66 66 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -53.8 -52.6 -51.6 -51.9 -50.7 -49.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 63 61 61 62 61 48 43 42 48 59 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 3 2 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -61 -86 -93 -108 -98 -71 -28 27 94 146 175 174 N/A 200 MB DIV 1 10 16 18 11 25 22 37 23 24 25 34 N/A 700-850 TADV 4 0 4 12 0 8 -4 -41 -51 -32 -8 -1 N/A LAND (KM) 1104 977 884 811 737 550 860 1295 1351 958 631 317 N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.9 35.5 37.1 38.6 40.1 42.8 45.9 48.3 50.3 51.9 53.2 54.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.2 60.8 59.3 57.0 54.7 48.8 41.8 35.4 29.5 24.3 19.5 14.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 20 22 23 25 28 27 23 20 17 16 17 N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 13 CX,CY: 5/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 4. -1. -5. -9. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -18. -21. -25. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -9. -16. -23. -28. -35. -40. -43. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072011 GERT 08/16/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072011 GERT 08/16/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072011 GERT 08/16/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)