* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 08/16/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 33 37 46 57 68 76 83 86 90 92 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 33 37 46 57 68 71 78 81 85 71 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 30 32 39 47 57 63 77 91 101 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 1 2 3 3 8 5 11 6 9 11 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -1 -1 -4 -6 -2 -3 1 0 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 123 273 311 339 255 288 270 309 307 309 311 323 329 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 152 152 150 147 150 155 165 168 170 166 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 157 155 155 152 148 149 151 160 161 162 157 140 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 13 13 11 12 11 11 11 11 10 12 700-500 MB RH 50 49 53 51 52 54 58 59 65 64 67 67 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 32 34 43 45 52 38 62 47 54 33 35 17 21 200 MB DIV 15 22 10 23 28 6 25 13 22 19 26 1 19 700-850 TADV 3 0 -2 -2 5 0 1 -1 1 -2 -1 -2 1 LAND (KM) 312 344 369 404 363 252 172 56 31 287 249 160 -49 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.5 16.5 17.3 18.2 19.0 19.8 20.4 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 61.3 62.9 64.4 66.0 67.5 70.5 73.4 76.1 78.6 80.9 83.1 85.2 87.5 STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 15 15 15 15 14 13 12 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 77 74 53 78 85 88 93 95 114 109 123 121 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 12. 21. 32. 43. 51. 58. 62. 65. 67. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 08/16/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 73.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932011 INVEST 08/16/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 08/16/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)