* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062011 08/16/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 42 45 47 46 44 43 42 42 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 42 45 47 46 44 43 42 42 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 34 38 43 44 44 43 41 39 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 9 6 7 3 11 16 18 24 24 17 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -6 -6 -8 -6 -4 -6 -1 -3 -4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 56 56 58 63 77 147 144 126 131 136 155 184 192 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.0 26.5 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 139 138 137 133 127 124 124 125 125 125 124 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 55 57 57 56 57 55 52 50 50 47 48 48 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 1 13 15 26 32 44 42 40 26 25 28 35 28 200 MB DIV -14 -6 0 -13 -18 -8 6 21 16 16 11 4 0 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2507 2444 2381 2303 2226 2053 1911 1770 1605 1398 1172 977 837 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.2 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 132.6 133.3 133.9 134.7 135.4 137.1 138.4 139.7 141.2 143.2 145.6 147.9 149.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 9 11 12 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 17 19 19 18 17 10 1 0 0 2 4 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 15. 17. 16. 14. 13. 12. 12. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062011 SIX 08/16/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062011 SIX 08/16/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##