* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL072011 08/16/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 47 45 42 39 33 26 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 47 45 42 39 33 26 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 49 48 47 44 42 40 37 36 36 36 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 19 14 12 9 19 30 50 50 44 45 46 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 0 0 3 4 0 3 5 11 12 N/A SHEAR DIR 52 83 114 150 198 241 248 259 265 263 245 234 N/A SST (C) 26.5 25.9 25.0 23.5 20.6 19.2 17.5 15.9 14.3 14.1 14.1 14.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 117 110 100 87 83 78 74 71 70 70 70 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 105 99 91 80 77 74 70 68 67 66 66 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.2 -51.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 64 61 63 64 62 60 53 50 47 54 57 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -89 -106 -105 -86 -58 -41 -42 9 32 60 123 96 N/A 200 MB DIV 13 2 17 13 15 33 45 27 17 26 41 46 N/A 700-850 TADV -1 2 6 -2 15 22 6 -22 -45 -30 28 10 N/A LAND (KM) 983 910 798 678 494 673 1199 1382 883 487 150 59 N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.5 37.2 38.8 40.6 42.4 45.1 47.5 49.6 51.4 52.8 54.0 55.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.6 58.7 56.8 54.2 51.5 44.7 36.8 29.6 23.1 17.4 12.3 7.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 22 24 27 28 29 28 24 21 18 16 16 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 15 CX,CY: 8/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. -1. -5. -8. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -20. -24. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -17. -24. -29. -36. -43. -47. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072011 GERT 08/16/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072011 GERT 08/16/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072011 GERT 08/16/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)