* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 08/16/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 30 33 42 52 63 73 80 85 90 91 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 30 33 42 52 63 73 80 85 72 42 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 36 43 51 63 78 93 86 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 5 1 4 4 8 3 3 5 7 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 1 0 -2 -4 2 -5 -1 -3 5 -1 SHEAR DIR 194 318 355 204 207 323 239 303 311 346 302 349 300 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.2 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 151 148 146 147 152 156 159 163 162 155 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 157 155 150 148 148 150 153 155 157 155 148 145 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 13 12 11 13 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 47 48 51 52 55 53 62 60 65 68 68 69 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 32 41 49 54 52 53 63 50 58 37 34 32 28 200 MB DIV 19 11 24 31 23 27 34 20 38 22 27 28 27 700-850 TADV 3 -6 -4 4 5 1 1 -2 1 -1 -1 -6 -5 LAND (KM) 333 375 361 313 300 285 178 153 326 250 187 -56 -39 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.5 18.0 18.4 18.8 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 63.4 65.1 66.8 68.4 70.0 73.2 76.1 78.8 81.3 83.7 85.8 88.1 90.5 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 16 16 15 14 13 12 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 63 70 84 96 87 71 103 99 112 108 109 77 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 8. 17. 27. 38. 48. 55. 60. 65. 66. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 08/16/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 80.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932011 INVEST 08/16/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 08/16/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)