* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062011 08/16/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 33 36 38 40 38 40 38 36 34 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 33 36 38 40 38 40 38 36 34 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 33 35 37 37 37 37 36 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 5 6 4 4 7 13 21 21 24 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -5 -6 -4 -4 -2 -4 -5 -7 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 49 43 45 95 152 168 133 121 129 139 148 168 208 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.6 26.2 26.0 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 137 135 134 128 124 123 122 123 124 125 125 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 55 56 53 55 55 50 51 49 51 50 51 46 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 7 8 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 18 22 25 33 44 41 41 29 24 16 22 17 11 200 MB DIV -14 2 -1 1 -2 -11 12 12 17 11 23 5 5 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 2449 2378 2307 2225 2143 1985 1838 1663 1468 1277 1078 907 790 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.7 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.1 14.2 13.9 13.4 LONG(DEG W) 133.1 133.8 134.5 135.3 136.1 137.6 138.9 140.5 142.3 144.2 146.3 148.6 150.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 17 15 13 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. 0. -1. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 8. 10. 8. 6. 4. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062011 SIX 08/16/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062011 SIX 08/16/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##