* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992011 08/16/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 37 51 64 74 80 79 76 73 67 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 37 51 64 74 80 79 76 73 67 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 48 51 52 51 49 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 11 9 10 9 12 17 8 7 5 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 3 5 4 4 0 6 -1 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 62 61 64 18 16 35 17 3 354 17 21 53 105 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.3 28.9 28.1 27.1 26.0 24.5 23.8 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 156 156 161 163 159 155 147 137 125 109 100 104 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.2 -53.7 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 9 8 9 8 8 6 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 79 77 74 74 71 68 70 67 66 62 57 61 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 7 12 15 19 22 23 23 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 17 7 -7 -9 -3 2 7 15 33 36 48 66 88 200 MB DIV 65 78 100 119 103 85 88 43 58 34 38 25 33 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -8 -7 -6 -11 -13 -16 -8 -8 -6 -3 LAND (KM) 209 236 262 252 262 307 330 424 510 621 807 1044 1220 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 13.8 13.6 14.0 14.4 15.2 16.3 17.5 18.5 19.1 19.2 18.5 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 97.5 97.8 98.0 99.2 100.3 102.9 105.7 108.5 111.4 114.4 117.3 119.8 121.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 3 7 12 12 14 15 15 14 14 13 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 13 43 35 45 19 4 7 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 14. 22. 28. 31. 32. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. 2. 7. 13. 17. 18. 19. 19. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 26. 39. 49. 55. 54. 51. 48. 42. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992011 INVEST 08/16/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992011 INVEST 08/16/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##