* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL072011 08/16/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 34 31 29 27 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 37 34 31 29 27 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 34 33 33 32 31 28 25 23 23 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 13 7 5 12 26 49 55 44 45 40 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 0 1 5 0 0 2 2 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 67 95 132 201 235 260 270 286 287 284 259 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 24.9 23.6 20.8 19.0 18.4 15.6 13.8 13.8 14.1 14.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 109 100 87 82 82 76 72 71 69 69 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 98 91 81 77 77 73 69 67 66 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -53.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 58 61 60 62 63 59 51 51 51 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -95 -101 -90 -55 -26 -19 -5 19 18 5 34 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 8 10 13 16 27 29 3 6 24 27 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 6 -3 12 19 12 54 97 136 133 64 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 904 812 689 527 499 946 1430 796 315 91 -72 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.3 38.9 40.5 42.2 43.9 46.9 50.0 52.5 54.3 55.7 56.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.5 56.2 53.9 51.0 48.1 40.3 30.5 22.0 14.8 8.9 4.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 24 26 27 29 34 32 26 21 16 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 23 CX,CY: 15/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 5. 0. -4. -8. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -17. -21. -25. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -16. -24. -31. -38. -44. -50. -60. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072011 GERT 08/16/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072011 GERT 08/16/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072011 GERT 08/16/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)