* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 08/16/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 40 50 62 71 79 86 92 96 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 40 50 62 71 79 86 50 34 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 40 48 61 78 97 56 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 3 9 9 4 2 5 6 9 7 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 -6 0 -4 -2 -6 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 258 316 210 234 261 140 228 98 47 80 76 110 81 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 148 145 145 149 153 156 157 161 163 161 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 155 151 148 147 149 151 154 154 157 159 158 162 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 11 10 12 11 11 9 11 8 11 8 700-500 MB RH 50 52 55 56 58 59 63 69 67 66 67 67 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 43 46 51 48 43 59 51 52 38 44 22 27 32 200 MB DIV -5 12 31 37 24 31 32 29 25 23 18 38 36 700-850 TADV -1 -4 4 3 0 2 -2 0 -1 0 -2 1 -5 LAND (KM) 363 337 276 261 261 279 228 279 104 62 57 -145 -99 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.6 14.8 15.4 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 65.4 67.1 68.8 70.5 72.2 75.4 78.2 80.8 83.3 85.6 87.9 90.3 92.8 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 17 16 15 13 13 12 11 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 68 73 79 57 51 86 67 43 33 63 42 0 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 14. 15. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 15. 25. 37. 46. 54. 61. 67. 71. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 08/16/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 65.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932011 INVEST 08/16/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 08/16/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)