* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062011 08/16/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 47 50 53 56 59 58 56 51 49 44 39 V (KT) LAND 40 44 47 50 53 56 59 58 56 51 49 44 39 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 48 52 55 60 61 60 56 52 49 45 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 3 4 3 4 5 11 17 17 24 23 21 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -5 -3 -6 -3 -6 -3 -2 -2 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 49 45 105 132 141 148 119 126 129 133 153 174 218 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.6 26.0 25.9 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 135 133 132 129 123 122 122 122 122 122 121 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 55 52 52 51 52 53 50 49 51 51 50 45 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 7 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 23 31 37 45 44 35 40 28 18 11 11 -2 -1 200 MB DIV 14 7 11 0 -7 2 30 20 17 43 11 1 10 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 0 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 2352 2270 2187 2128 2068 1951 1731 1541 1386 1234 1063 873 676 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.6 13.3 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.6 14.8 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 134.1 134.9 135.7 136.3 136.9 138.0 139.9 141.6 143.1 144.6 146.2 148.2 150.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 6 6 8 9 8 7 7 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 23 21 19 17 14 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. -1. -2. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 19. 18. 16. 11. 9. 4. -1. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062011 FERNANDA 08/16/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062011 FERNANDA 08/16/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##