* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992011 08/16/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 38 52 65 75 79 77 75 75 69 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 38 52 65 75 79 77 75 75 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 43 48 50 50 48 45 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 9 13 7 5 11 8 10 4 6 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 1 2 5 -3 2 0 1 -3 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 66 79 42 54 46 42 25 15 21 359 17 51 187 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.8 28.1 27.2 26.4 25.0 24.0 23.8 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 162 161 159 154 147 137 129 114 102 99 101 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -51.5 -52.2 -51.6 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 8 7 9 7 6 4 5 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 80 78 77 74 74 72 71 67 65 62 63 62 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 7 8 12 16 20 22 23 24 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 11 7 6 12 14 22 25 34 38 53 61 84 86 200 MB DIV 74 82 94 85 93 95 48 72 34 36 28 44 4 700-850 TADV -1 0 -10 -12 -10 -9 -7 -13 -12 -8 -8 -6 -4 LAND (KM) 266 261 271 285 303 334 442 542 641 815 984 1144 1253 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.9 15.3 16.4 17.5 18.2 18.5 18.7 18.5 18.1 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 98.2 99.4 100.5 101.9 103.2 105.9 108.7 111.4 114.0 116.7 119.0 120.7 121.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 14 14 13 13 12 10 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 15 44 35 46 45 29 13 10 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 14. 22. 27. 29. 29. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 5. 10. 16. 19. 20. 22. 24. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 27. 40. 50. 54. 52. 50. 50. 44. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992011 INVEST 08/16/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992011 INVEST 08/16/11 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING