* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL072011 08/16/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 26 23 21 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 30 26 23 21 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 30 27 26 25 24 23 21 19 19 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 4 5 14 19 51 58 49 39 26 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 0 3 8 10 13 11 3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 102 112 198 226 240 228 240 255 248 225 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 23.8 21.0 19.4 18.1 17.0 15.1 14.4 13.4 13.5 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 102 87 82 78 75 72 70 69 69 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 100 92 80 76 73 70 68 66 66 66 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.5 -51.8 -50.5 -49.8 -49.8 -49.1 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 62 60 63 52 37 35 43 51 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -117 -100 -57 -30 -19 17 89 178 189 165 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 5 12 16 32 49 47 17 -4 19 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 23 15 8 16 -79 -134 -58 -37 -16 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 854 705 535 503 602 925 1292 1385 1038 685 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.6 40.4 42.1 43.7 45.2 47.9 50.1 51.7 52.9 54.3 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.9 53.5 51.1 48.4 45.6 40.4 35.3 30.5 25.6 20.5 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 25 25 25 24 21 19 16 16 17 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 25 CX,CY: 19/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 10. 4. -3. -7. -10. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 13. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -5. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -22. -25. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -14. -14. -16. -24. -32. -34. -38. -40. -40. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072011 GERT 08/16/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072011 GERT 08/16/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072011 GERT 08/16/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)