* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062011 08/16/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 56 59 61 64 62 57 52 48 43 38 V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 56 59 61 64 62 57 52 48 43 38 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 54 58 62 67 69 66 62 57 52 47 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 3 3 2 10 12 18 20 22 16 20 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -7 -5 -7 -4 -3 -5 -2 -4 -1 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 349 50 75 74 149 126 124 130 152 170 195 217 252 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.4 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.0 26.1 25.9 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 135 132 130 127 125 124 124 123 124 122 120 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 52 54 51 50 51 51 49 49 49 48 47 47 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 7 6 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 30 35 44 48 43 41 30 24 9 3 -8 -10 -1 200 MB DIV 10 -3 -12 -11 -20 0 3 2 6 9 -5 7 11 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 1 2 1 3 LAND (KM) 2250 2176 2102 2031 1960 1809 1620 1427 1251 1076 907 736 568 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 11.9 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.5 13.0 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.0 14.3 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 135.3 136.1 136.8 137.5 138.1 139.5 141.2 142.9 144.6 146.4 148.5 150.5 152.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 8 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 22 20 18 13 4 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 19. 17. 12. 7. 3. -2. -7. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062011 FERNANDA 08/16/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062011 FERNANDA 08/16/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##