* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 08/17/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 57 69 79 87 92 95 96 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 57 69 79 87 72 41 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 55 71 91 87 45 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 6 3 5 4 1 5 5 4 5 9 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 -1 -3 -1 -3 -1 -4 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 148 172 223 219 172 285 226 359 64 29 319 333 327 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 145 146 148 153 156 157 159 161 161 156 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 143 144 144 146 150 151 151 152 155 156 150 153 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.1 -52.6 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 11 12 12 10 11 10 11 8 11 8 12 700-500 MB RH 51 52 55 53 58 63 67 66 71 67 69 67 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 47 41 52 58 48 56 43 54 38 39 30 27 200 MB DIV 33 42 27 36 30 31 27 12 22 24 22 27 9 700-850 TADV 5 5 1 -3 -2 -1 -1 -3 0 -6 3 -4 9 LAND (KM) 272 269 293 295 280 180 253 237 155 178 -53 -66 0 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.6 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 69.5 70.9 72.3 73.6 74.9 77.5 79.9 82.0 84.1 86.2 88.7 91.2 93.8 STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 77 59 56 65 84 77 100 63 85 96 74 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 12. 18. 23. 28. 33. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 22. 32. 44. 54. 62. 67. 70. 71. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 08/17/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932011 INVEST 08/17/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 08/17/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)