* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN EP072011 08/17/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 46 53 67 79 83 85 81 79 72 62 V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 46 53 67 79 83 85 81 79 72 62 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 49 54 56 56 54 51 47 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 9 3 5 12 7 9 7 8 3 4 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 6 5 10 -1 5 4 2 0 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 38 53 51 61 348 15 352 8 30 20 314 292 224 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.1 27.4 26.8 26.1 25.2 24.5 23.8 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 161 158 154 146 138 131 123 113 106 99 91 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.0 -52.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.5 -52.0 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 9 7 6 6 7 6 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 77 76 72 71 70 70 64 62 61 64 64 66 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 10 12 16 20 20 22 22 23 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 8 12 16 20 25 18 19 25 24 1 23 200 MB DIV 99 91 96 100 89 46 76 44 26 2 14 -2 13 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -5 -5 -14 -13 -17 -15 -17 -7 -3 -3 0 LAND (KM) 253 264 289 300 358 482 602 638 698 754 753 792 845 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.3 17.0 17.6 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.6 20.0 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 100.1 101.5 102.9 104.6 106.2 108.8 111.2 113.2 114.8 116.1 117.0 118.0 119.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 16 16 14 12 11 9 8 6 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 38 47 48 39 29 17 15 11 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 14. 19. 23. 24. 24. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 18. 20. 21. 24. 22. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 23. 37. 49. 53. 55. 51. 49. 42. 32. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072011 SEVEN 08/17/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 65% is 5.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 41% is 5.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 28% is 7.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072011 SEVEN 08/17/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##