* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 08/17/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 36 46 57 68 77 83 89 95 97 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 36 46 57 68 48 36 31 28 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 46 58 45 35 30 28 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 3 7 8 1 10 11 11 15 14 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 -3 0 1 -6 -4 -4 -3 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 163 171 168 158 189 44 107 81 83 74 81 87 89 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 147 148 149 152 155 155 158 163 163 164 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 145 145 146 148 149 151 149 154 160 160 162 166 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 10 8 9 7 700-500 MB RH 57 56 56 59 59 62 65 65 69 68 71 72 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 44 58 65 60 54 60 49 60 53 50 41 42 200 MB DIV 36 31 37 33 29 11 42 28 37 21 50 43 48 700-850 TADV 3 0 -3 0 0 -4 1 -2 -1 -4 -3 3 1 LAND (KM) 248 287 323 301 271 301 200 36 -41 -38 -100 -72 95 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.3 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 71.3 72.7 74.1 75.4 76.7 79.2 81.4 83.4 85.2 87.4 89.7 92.1 94.3 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 13 13 13 11 10 9 10 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 54 53 67 82 81 63 24 2 69 81 0 22 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 23. 28. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 21. 32. 43. 52. 58. 64. 70. 72. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 08/17/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932011 INVEST 08/17/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 08/17/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)