* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062011 08/17/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 50 52 50 49 44 40 34 29 25 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 48 50 52 50 49 44 40 34 29 25 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 49 51 54 55 53 50 45 40 35 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 2 3 8 11 14 14 19 19 24 25 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -6 -4 -5 -6 -4 -4 -2 0 -2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 83 151 115 114 107 119 139 149 169 198 209 233 235 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 132 129 128 124 122 120 118 117 117 116 118 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 50 50 53 52 53 48 46 46 43 42 45 44 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 9 10 9 8 8 6 5 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 39 36 28 28 19 7 1 3 -8 -9 -14 -17 200 MB DIV -8 -20 -29 -14 -1 0 13 -1 9 5 10 9 0 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 2 2 1 2 4 3 LAND (KM) 2142 2071 2000 1922 1844 1644 1434 1211 984 781 628 500 380 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.8 12.1 12.4 13.1 14.0 15.0 15.7 16.0 15.7 15.8 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 136.6 137.3 137.9 138.6 139.2 140.9 142.6 144.4 146.4 148.4 150.4 152.1 153.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 19 16 7 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 5. 4. -1. -5. -11. -16. -20. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062011 FERNANDA 08/17/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062011 FERNANDA 08/17/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##