* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN EP072011 08/17/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 43 48 53 64 71 75 75 71 64 56 50 V (KT) LAND 35 38 43 48 53 64 71 75 75 71 64 56 50 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 47 52 55 55 53 49 44 40 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 8 5 6 11 7 7 10 9 10 8 8 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 7 8 5 1 10 0 5 -1 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 40 52 17 353 2 9 352 9 337 342 253 250 217 SST (C) 29.9 29.5 29.1 28.8 28.4 27.6 26.9 26.1 25.2 24.4 23.6 23.0 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 166 162 158 154 150 141 133 124 114 105 96 90 87 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 74 73 71 73 73 67 63 58 62 61 62 60 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 8 9 9 12 13 15 16 16 15 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR -1 2 4 10 12 12 25 25 26 7 9 6 9 200 MB DIV 80 70 58 65 56 49 81 19 38 6 -8 11 13 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -8 -16 -7 -10 -6 -14 -10 -7 -2 0 LAND (KM) 204 234 254 314 375 550 563 622 699 727 785 832 908 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.7 18.4 19.0 19.4 19.9 20.3 20.7 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 101.5 103.0 104.5 106.0 107.5 110.1 112.5 114.3 115.8 117.0 118.2 119.1 120.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 14 12 10 8 7 6 6 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 52 49 39 33 10 20 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 16. 18. 18. 17. 15. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 11. 14. 16. 16. 15. 13. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 18. 29. 36. 40. 40. 36. 29. 21. 15. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072011 SEVEN 08/17/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072011 SEVEN 08/17/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##