* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 08/17/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 47 58 70 78 85 91 96 98 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 47 58 55 38 31 28 32 33 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 38 48 50 36 30 28 31 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 8 8 4 7 7 11 14 15 14 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -5 -4 -4 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 165 142 152 180 213 97 76 79 61 74 65 94 88 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 148 151 152 155 154 156 160 162 165 166 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 145 146 149 149 151 149 151 157 160 164 166 162 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.3 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 11 10 11 9 11 8 11 7 9 5 700-500 MB RH 54 56 59 58 61 67 67 69 70 70 72 74 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 44 55 64 56 54 62 47 49 45 46 38 39 34 200 MB DIV 23 29 27 33 14 22 32 43 13 21 38 34 44 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -2 -1 -2 0 -2 0 -3 -1 -3 3 6 LAND (KM) 317 338 290 272 287 284 87 -34 -62 -59 -115 41 130 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.2 15.1 15.0 14.9 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 73.3 74.6 75.9 77.2 78.4 80.6 82.5 84.3 86.3 88.4 90.8 93.2 95.5 STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 10 11 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 57 68 89 71 57 87 4 70 0 35 34 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 22. 33. 45. 53. 60. 66. 71. 73. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 08/17/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932011 INVEST 08/17/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 08/17/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)