* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062011 08/17/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 46 47 46 45 43 40 35 29 24 20 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 46 47 46 45 43 40 35 29 24 20 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 46 47 47 48 48 47 44 42 38 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 5 6 6 8 8 12 17 23 26 23 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -3 -4 -3 -1 -1 -1 -2 -5 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 102 214 89 128 128 149 135 114 145 181 212 211 242 SST (C) 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.2 25.4 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 129 126 124 121 119 119 118 117 115 117 120 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 47 50 51 50 50 45 40 42 42 41 39 35 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 6 5 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 37 36 30 37 34 16 8 -4 -5 -16 -13 -17 -13 200 MB DIV -9 -26 -12 4 20 0 17 19 12 4 19 3 -1 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 0 2 4 3 3 5 3 LAND (KM) 2054 1973 1892 1797 1702 1502 1304 1119 933 723 521 383 326 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.2 12.7 13.1 14.2 15.1 15.5 15.6 15.9 16.4 16.4 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 137.4 138.1 138.8 139.6 140.3 141.8 143.4 145.1 147.0 149.1 151.1 153.1 155.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 14 4 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -5. -10. -16. -21. -25. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062011 FERNANDA 08/17/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062011 FERNANDA 08/17/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##